So, it seems that the country will have a federal election in the fall that nobody wants, to choose a prime minister that few will like.
It's a contest brewing between the stiff guy with the funny hair and the nerdy-looking guy with the glasses and the charisma problem. I can't remember a time when Canadian politics seemed more dull. For a brief shining moment in the spring, the Maxime Bernier affair livened Ottawa up a bit, but as scandals go, it was a tempest in a teapot. It was never going to bring the government down and now, it is almost forgotten.
St ©phane Dion has spent the summer criss-crossing the country selling his carbon tax green plan, but coming into the autumn few remember its details, how it differs from the Tories' green plans and whether it will really cut Canadian energy use.
From an election perspective, what is more important is that, according to opinion polls, the economy has replaced the environment as the No. 1 issue in Canadian minds. In Manitoba, where the economy still seems quite fine thank you, even that issue seems less than gripping.
Perhaps we are all still lulled by the very pleasant, warm summer we are experiencing. Perhaps we are mesmerized by the exciting politics emerging in the United States. Perhaps it is simply because Parliament isn't sitting, but it really is hard to feel either that the country needs an election or that if it has one, lives will be markedly better or even different than they were before.
It is as if, in political terms, we are all marking time; that we are in a calm before a storm and that all of a sudden, as in the United States, an event will happen or a man or woman will emerge that will alter the tenor of the times.
It is as if, also, the Liberal era never ended. Sure, we threw the Liberals out and replaced them with a Conservative minority government. But what changed? We threw the Liberals out because they had lost our trust. It was not so much that the sponsorship scandal was so terrible. Political parties have been using government money to bolster their reputations for years. It was the brazen lack of accountability and the sense that the Liberals had been corrupted by their years in power that got them defeated. The sponsorship scandal provided the excuse and prime minister Paul Martin proved an admirable fall guy. He had his own government investigated and appeared to dither while he did it. Stephen Harper had the advantage of being the other guy.
But more than two and a half years into the Tories' rule, Prime Minister Harper is still the stiff guy whom Canadians have not yet learned to trust. Canadians feared when they last went to the polls that Mr. Harper had a hidden far-right agenda that would permanently alter Canadian values. It's because those fears still remain that it is unlikely that the Tories can win a majority.
In fact, the Tories haven't really done much. They've pretty well reversed themselves on climate change. Their position on Afghanistan is different in emphasis to the Liberals, but it's hard to look at Ottawa and see that the place is really different from what it was under Martin or Jean Chr ©tien. It's just not as interesting.
It's the small things that the Harper government does that hurt it -- cutting arts funding to groups showing Canadian culture overseas, not showing up to the Beijing Olympics -- petty stuff that make the Tories look mean-spirited.
It would be "come back Liberals all is forgiven," were it not for their leader. If Dion has become more impressive in the 20 months he has held office, it's not obvious. His tortured English doesn't help him. Chr ©tien's English was tortured, too, but it became almost an asset, an aspect of his "little guy from Shawinigan" aw-shucks style.
Dion's tortured English, in contrast, is part of a coldness that builds a wall between him and his audience. He has no natural affinity for crowds, nor any of the natural instincts of the likable politician.
The upshot is that we have leaders of two parties who fail to inspire, a government that has barely stepped out of the shadow of its predecessor and an opposition that can't find an issue to sell to the public.
If there is going to be an election, then it will be because Harper believes that his fortunes may decline and it is better to go to the country sooner rather than later. Dion must surely think by now that he has avoided an election for long enough and that to continue to prop up the minority Tories will cause his image more and more damage. He's right, but really, does anyone care?
Nicholas Hirst is CEO of Winnipeg-based television and film producer Original Pictures Inc.
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