You are schlepping along alone in a sun-dappled alpine meadow when suddenly a massive grizzly bear rears up about 50 yards from you, growling and waving its front paws.
That happened to me when I was working on road construction in the wilds of Alberta's Jasper National Park. I thought of the incident the other day because it reminds me -- in some ways -- of the West's problem with Russia over Georgia and its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
You should approach the Russian bear in much the same way as you deal with a grizzly -- calmly, coldly and cautiously.
When the grizzly popped up in front of me, I frantically searched my mind for half-remembered tips on handling grizzlies given to me by half-stoned guys sitting around camp fires.
"Don't run," I recalled someone said. "The bear will chase you, and he can run faster than you can." The West shouldn't run from the Russian bear either because that would damage its relationships with former Soviet republics and satellite states such as Ukraine.
"Be firm, but cautious," said another woodsman. "Remember: you have invaded the grizzly's area of interest."
That's the advice the neo-cons in George W. Bush's administration seem to have forgotten. They love to play around with the "new European" nations that came into being with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
They convinced the Poles to take an American missile interceptor base, a plan that has infuriated Moscow. America says its system, which is not yet operational, will protect it and Europe from missiles launched by rogue states, such as Iran. Moscow says the system is intended to undermine its nuclear deterrent. In a cold war, improving a defence can be considered offensive by others.
America's insensitivity to Russia's concerns is strange given that since the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 it has warned nations not to fool around in its backyard. Oddly, the doctrine came about partly because of a row with Russia.
America helped supply the army of Georgia's impulsive president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Most reports say he used them to attack pro-Russian South Ossetia, which is seeking full independence. Fighting also broke out in the separatist-minded region of Abkhazia. The Russians replied with force, easily knocking out the Georgian army. The fighting raises a major question: How would America react if Russia supplied a lot of weapons to Cuba?
Bears pay attention when you seem to be prepared to hurt them. In my case, I always carried an umbrella in my forays into the bush because I don't like getting rained on. My pals said I look like a British broker who had badly gone astray.
I didn't shake the umbrella at the bear. I placed it over my head and slowly opened it. The bear stopped waving his arms and stared at me. Apparently, he had never seen a Brit broker in his neighbourhood. I think he was impressed because the umbrella made me look taller.
There are ways to get the Russian bear to listen: threaten to boot it out of the G8; block its membership in the World Trade Organization; insist on an international force in Georgia's breakaway regions and dump planned American-Russian talks on developing a long-term strategic relationship. European Union nations are scheduled to discuss next month building a new relationship with Russia.
NATO, a year before its 60th birthday, is split on Georgia. Canada, Britain, America and most eastern European nations want to be tough with Russia; most western European nations want to maintain a dialogue. The organization, at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers last week, did agree to stop formal Russian-NATO relationships -- a move the Russians characterized as a mouse.
The economy is Russia's Achilles' heel. Aside from energy, its economy is not up to much. It badly needs western help in repositioning itself in a global world.
Reacting coolly and quickly to a bear is important. My bear eventually dropped to all fours and shambled off -- but several times he stood up and looked back at me -- just as the Russians are taking their sweet time leaving Georgia.
The bear wanted to make sure that I knew I was in his area of interest and should be careful -- just as Russia is using Georgia as an opportunity to say much the same thing to America and the former Soviet republics and satellites.
Tom Ford is managing editor of The Issues Network
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